Hello Uptober, the beginning of Q4.

Q3 is wrapping up, and with it, a lot of the chop and uncertainty. I’ve posted before about why Q4 matters, and history shows it’s often the quarter where Bitcoin makes its biggest moves.

The Seasonal Setup

2025 is a post election year. That’s always interesting for markets. Historically, the first year of a new US administration comes with fresh policies and, let’s be honest, plenty of money printing (M2 supply expansion). Presidents like to juice the economy early to support their agenda.

So the question is: will it play out the same way again?

We’ve Seen This Movie Before

• 2013 Q4: Bitcoin +479% (the OG bubble top).
• 2017 Q4: Bitcoin +215% (post-2016 election, ICO mania, late-cycle madness).
• 2021 Q4: Bitcoin +5% (not parabolic, but still a heated zone before cooling off).

Every post election Q4 since 2013 has marked a decisive part of the Bitcoin cycle, either the final parabolic run or the exhaustion top.

Where We Are Now

Risk metrics line up, too. Historically, Bitcoin pushes into the 70-100 risk zone during these Q4 peaks. Right now, that translates to about $144,875 at risk 70.

Of course, volatility is part of the game, but that’s also where the opportunity is. The key is not to blindly ape in or out, but to use signals that reflect where we are in the cycle. Bitcoin risk gives you that compass.

Final thought: if Bitcoin overheats into the 80–100 risk zone, that’s often the warning sign we’re nearing the cycle top. Until then, keep stacking smart, manage risk, and remember: the market rewards patience and discipline more than FOMO.